2015, and February has rolled around. Which means the
“Desert Races” in Qatar, Dubai and Oman; Track Worlds, and the NRS is soon to
kick off again. The WorldTour teams have rolled away from Australia, but what conclusions
can we draw?
1. Are the women generally more successful than Team Sky?
I could have included Lance in the header for this argument.
After all, he did show up to one race a year far better “prepared” than anyone
else. That (though without the drugs) is what Team Sky is trying to do now with
their classics-specific and altitude training for the Tours, and racing by
numbers and with fewer race days in preparation. Pick the targets for the
riders throughout the year, boil cycling down to science, and turn up with the
guy to beat. Except that so far (two Tour de France titles aside) that hasn’t
worked. Zero Giri, zero Vuelta’s, zero Monuments.
Maybe the races aren’t as high profile, but January was an
exhibition of ladies who hit their targets. Peta Mullens was selective in picking
her Bay Criterium Series races, and walked off with a stage win a day after
watching from the sidelines. Her plan was to do just one genuine road race for
the year – she won it. Shara Gillow aimed at reclaiming the national TT title,
and took it, without having raced the Bay Crits. In the Santos Women’s Tour,
none of the stage winners had raced Nationals the week before (Hoskins had
trained in Adelaide, while Bronzini and Scandolara were ineligible); while
Annette Edmondson took the sprint jersey after her lead-up was in Tasmania, not
Ballarat. And then Rachel Neylan took out the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race
(CEGORR) without having raced the Santos Women’s Tour. Is the old adage that
“racing is the best training for racing” really true? Is it becoming less true?
Is it something about the physiology of either recovery or training peaks that
sets the women apart?
2. Greenedge’s diversity strategy is working…too well?
Without Simon Gerrans, Orica-Greenedge struggled a bit this
summer. It took the class of Cameron Meyer and Caleb Ewan to break the team’s
duck at the Herald Sun Tour. This was the first year though, that Matt White
hadn’t listed the national road race as a priority (although naturally he still
wanted to win it). Greenedge didn’t win it. Greenedge didn’t win a stage at the
Tour Down Under (although Daryl Impey took the sprint jersey home), or the
CEGORR. Is this a disaster? Should we panic? I’m willing to say no. Losing
Gerrans (who hits his targets remarkably well, and who excels on the Ballarat
course) was a big blow. Albasini is a similar type of rider to Gerrans; while
there is much excitement over Matthews, the Yates twins, Esteban Chaves, and
Magnus Cort. None of these riders raced in Australia, or (Albasini excepted)
have celebrated a 25th birthday. I’d expect to see much more of
Orica-Greenedge throughout the year, far more than their January suggested.
They should continue to be contenders in the Classics, and (right on White’s
plan) soon in the Tours. Lacklustre January maybe, but they are still a good
team with many more goals than the Australian summer.
3. The NRS is getting better.
My favourite race of the summer was the CEGORR, just pipping
the National road race. What were the features? The attacking. Constant
attacking. So many attacks. Granted, by the finale of the CEGORR, there were
only a few NRS riders left in the second group, but all of the teams
represented made their presence felt. The early break featured Budget, African
Wildlife Safaris and Charter Mason; while Search2Retain and Avanti were marking
the counter-attacks that were launched shortly afterwards. These are all riders
who aren’t racing WorldTour or for the National team; yet were still willing
and able to take on the bigger names.
Nationals was a little different in the sense that the
domestic riders seemed to be attacking to isolate the WorldTour riders (notice
I haven’t used the term “teams”) with a genuine view to winning. Upwards of 8
riders against 3 is always favourable; and there was no fear shown by the Australian-registered
teams. If the NRS is made up of racing as aggressive as those two races, we’ll
be in for a FANTASTIC spectacle. If the riders are as good as their January
racing suggested, the future of Australian cycling is still bright. It’s a good
time to start having nightly NRS highlights, that’s for sure!
4. Jack and Rohan’s hours
I think everyone feels for Jack Bobridge. His name was on
everyone’s lips by the midway point of the Tour Down Under after his
performance at Nationals and the stage to Campbelltown; but he fell just short
of the Hour Record. His turnaround time might have been a factor, with merely a
week between the TDU and his record attempt. By contrast, through January, Dennis
just snuck up on everyone, never more so than on his climb to Paracombe, when
the riders, spectators and commentators were too busy focussing on Cadel.
Dennis then rode masterfully, picking the right wheels from that point on, and
not “blowing up” on Willunga Hill in a vain pursuit of Richie Porte. Their
January rides were prophetic for their Hour Record attempts. Bobridge went out
on the attack straight away and made a phenomenal statement about his ability,
before he ultimately faded away; while Dennis rode a supremely controlled TDU
and hour with the full background support of Team BMC.
5. Might is right
Once the break of 21 riders went away on Stage 1 of the
Herald Sun Tour; the race was reduced to a select few who took time on the rest
of the field. With 3 representatives from Orica-Greenedge (the only WorldTour
team in the race), 4 from Avanti, and with Budget, Drapac, MTN-Qhubeka and
United-Healthcare all represented, the race was never going to come back
together. This meant that the suspense was dulled somewhat on the first full
day of racing. Naturally, the race still had to be won from there, but with
Orica controlling the front for Ewan and Meyer, any other overall winner was
going to be a surprise, despite the best efforts of the Avanti Racing Team.
This raises a concern for the Herald Sun Tour. With only one
WorldTour team present this year, the race was somewhat strangled. Is the
solution to open it up to more WorldTour teams and reduce the number of local
teams in the race for the sake of prestige and coverage? Is the solution to block
Orica (Australia’s highest-profile team) from competing to allow a better
contest that will probably have less public interest? Personally, I’d like to
see 3 or 4 WorldTour teams who would make an interesting race, the mix of
ProContinental teams such as those who took part this year, and then still have
room for the local teams who can do their best to animate the race. Or, limit
the number of riders per team. Fewer riders per team makes the race harder to
control, after all.
In the Santos Women’s Tour, the control and dominance of
Orica-AIS was also notable. Providing 3 stage wins out of 4, the race never
really looked out of their control once Scandolara took the leader’s jersey by
6 seconds. This was partly due to the lack of time bonuses in what was a
parcours unlikely to splinter the field into groups of 1’s and 2’s at the
finish, but partly to the strength of Orica and Wiggle Down Under. The final
criterium was nearly a procession as the two international teams organised at
the front and strangled the race. This is far less of a concern than the men’s
racing due to the inherently limited coverage of women’s racing – any double
World Champions should be welcomed to our streets as often as possible!!
All of this leads me to be incredibly optimistic for the
rest of the season ahead. The women now head to the NRS races (which are
generally aggressive) or to Europe to take on Vos, Ferrand-Prevot and co.
Orica-Greenedge should be firing again with Gerrans and Albasini in the
classics and visible throughout the season. The NRS riders return on March 26
in Perth, with what is sure to be a strong field, new names to watch, and
exciting racing. The Hour Record continues to gather momentum, and the
anticipation of Wiggins, Martin or Phinney trying to topple Dennis’ mark is
mouth-watering. Meanwhile, once the European season starts, so many of the WorldTour
teams are strong that we probably won’t see too many races under total control.
2015 is going to be a good year of cycling, I can’t wait!!
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