Wednesday 18 February 2015

Reservations of Relegations and Promotion Pessimism


Recently there was an article written by Al Hinds that compared and contrasted the drama and intrigue of the English Premier League (and lower tiers) to the structure of cycling. It gave readers the highs and lows of the season, revoked memories for those who have followed it; and illustrated the appeal of the game to those who don’t follow it. The basis of this argument was the relegation battle, which (for the teams who survive it) is worth millions of pounds, and a great amount of exposure and prestige; and the comparison to cycling, which has a structure that rewards cash, not results. As an example, Team BMC are assured a WorldTour place, despite one Grand Tour win and zero Monuments. However, BMC have the money. Katusha have the money. Oleg Tinkov has the money for Tinkoff-Saxo (though the Russian economic crisis briefly cast doubt over that); and all of these teams are missing Monuments or Grand Tour victories in the last few seasons. Astana have the money and a WorldTour licence, despite a dubious doping record. Wildcard teams for Grand Tours and Monuments are fairly predictable each year. So went the article. This led me to consider the practical implications of such an idealistic concept.
 

 Firstly, let us assume that each team riding in 2014 (you’ll see why I haven’t used 2015 soon…) is a recognisable brand that has stable, substantial revenue; and brand longevity. Most cycling teams are short-term affairs in terms of world sport (think Milram, Barloworld, Unibet, and so far, Greenedge) when compared to the 100+ year histories of Manchester United, Real Madrid, or even Collingwood and Carlton. The NBA has teams nearly 70 years old. Conversely, cycling’s oldest well-known team structure is the Reynolds team from Spain, created for 1980. You might not recognise the Reynolds name, but they delivered Pedro Delgado and Miguel Indurain to six Tours de France under the name ibanesto; Valverde to a Liege-Bastogne-Liege as Caisse d’Epargne, and more recently Nairo Quintana to a Giro victory as Movistar. Even one of the elder statesmen of teams in Etixx-Quickstep is only 12 years old this year. This is a consequence of the lack of money available in cycling as a world sport when compared to football, or local interest in the NBA or AFL. But, let’s ignore this and assume that each cycling squad is indeed defined as a team that merely has sponsorship, as opposed to a sponsorship defining the existence of a team.
 

 If a relegation/promotion system was in place for the 2015 season, based on the 2014 UCI points rankings, it wouldn’t be a totally different ball game. If the bottom three WorldTour teams were relegated and replaced by the highest-scoring three ProContinental teams, we would have lost Europcar (who are ProContinental anyway due to a lack of financial guarantees), Cannondale (due to Sagan moving away and who have merged anyway; hence my reluctance to assume 2015 teams for my analysis), and FDJ.fr, who delivered a rider onto the podium of the Tour de France and stage wins in the Giro d’Italia (though Bouhanni’s points wouldn’t have counted once he moved to Cofidis). The promoted teams would be Topsport-Vlaanderen (who are focussed on the Flandrian region), Wanty – Groupe Gobert (they almost won Paris-Tours, right?) and Cofidis. While the teams hypothetically relegated haven’t made a massive difference to the 2015 WorldTour; with all due respect, I don’t consider the promoted teams a strong set of additions to a calendar that includes races in Australia and Canada, where interest in Flandrian teams is minimal. The highest-ranked Asian team is Tabriz Petrochemical Team, while MTN-Qhubeka (one of the more exciting ProContintal teams) would have been ranked 42nd in line for promotion – a reflection on the races contested in the local region more than outright ability. IAM Cycling were fifth on the list, for those wondering. The stacked and prestigious European schedule is perpetuating the balance towards European teams; but the simple fix is to open up points to teams competing in all categories on all continents (so MTN-Qhubeka takes points for Milan-San Remo despite being African-registered, for example). This creates more problems as teams might enter as many races as possible around the world and over-reach their budgets; but does eliminate the bias towards the European teams. This is certainly an issue that would need to be looked at in more detail were such a system implemented.
 

 The loss of points associated with Sagan and Bouhanni from their 2014 teams indicates that a points restructure is needed; however also that for the teams to be sustainable, this restructuring (which is before the UCI now) needs to reward teams for points, not individual riders. The current climate, which has base salaries and endorsements as opposed to criterium and track contracts earning the majority of a rider’s salary; and a rider’s value being judged on points alone does little to warrant loyalty to riders, and subsequently riders to teams. But, can you reward riders who finish 20 minutes back equally to those who win? Should you ignore the domestique’s role in the team? It’s a conundrum.
 

 If a team was promoted, and was afforded a windfall in the same manner as an English football team, it would certainly increase the quality of the racing overall. More money will lead to better riders and a more competitive free agency system than is currently in place. It will become more of a “seller’s market” as opposed to some riders (like Jani Brajkovic or Steele von Hoff) scratching for a ride in the WorldTour. A team gets promoted; they will need riders who have proven themselves at WorldTour level. This will lead to better working conditions for the riders. However, this relies on the cash being in the sport to recruit and pay the riders, and for a team like Topsport to send their riders outside of Flanders and France; and all the way to Canada or Australia. This is a big, big sticking point, and it comes back to the idealism of the concept. If the money was there, the race to sign out-of-contract super-domestiques to be leaders would be aggressive, and I believe that it would incentivise riders to show just how super they can be as domestiques, in the vein (no pun intended) of Roberto Heras or Floyd Landis, who landed contracts to lead their future teams on the back of their performances in service of Lance Armstrong. The doling of money to promoted teams would be the responsibility of the UCI, however I’m not even convinced that any money that the UCI can stockpile should be spent on the elite, so much as the local levels around the world.
 

 Before this is implemented in the WorldTour, the first step is to test it on the Wildcard places for the Grand Tours. This relies on ASO, RCS Sport, or any other promoter agreeing with the UCI, which hasn’t always been the case. RCS already has a spot lined up for the highest-ranked Italian team for the Giro, but it has gone to the same team (the Androni set-up) for the past few seasons. The obvious problem with this is the prestige associated with the biggest races; and the patriotic nature of the organisers, who wish to give French teams a place in French races (which, given the globalisation of the sport is fair enough). And this is where it gets sticky again. The big races were created for publicity. They still exist for publicity. The promoters run the races, the UCI runs the sport. The division of revenue has created political standoffs previously, and for the UCI to fund a system that may remove local teams from their local races will likely cause more disagreements; as well as maybe prompting sponsors to baulk at the prospect of missing their preferred races several times in a multi-year contract. This is certainly another issue that would need examining.
 

 I honestly believe that the promotion/relegation system is a fantastic concept. Honestly, I really do, despite the negativity that I have outlined here. Such a system would create interest at the lower end of the WorldTour, in races such as Paris-Tours or the Tour of Lombardy which have lost some of their appeal in the past decade but are situated at the end of the season; and would be a great stepping stone to a “relegation battle”. It would allow free agent riders to remain at the top level, instead of having so few places for so many riders, which would allow for better sporting contests. I love it as an idealistic concept. (Incidentally, the lack of places for riders won’t get any better if the new reforms come in for 2018, which limits teams to 22 riders instead of 30).
 

 However, the sport needs to change. Firstly, it needs teams to be recognisable brands (and devoted fans who will follow their team, regardless of which division they’re in); which will reduce the exposure and therefore sponsorship value for companies such as Movistar or Cannondale, who have had naming rights. Secondly, it needs money for promoted teams from the UCI to cover the potential shortfalls of getting to races around the globe. This and my previous point seem fairly mutually exclusive, which will be a serious problem that I don’t see being overcome anytime soon. Thirdly, the points system needs a major overhaul. Fortunately, the UCI is in the process of doing this now, and it is up to them to decide which direction the sport is heading in (as an elite set of teams; or a tiered system, which is looking the likely option for 2018). Fourth, the promoters and UCI need to play ball and be on the same page in terms of compromising wildcards on sporting merit and patriotic choices.
 

 So while I love the idea and the concept; maybe it is only appropriate for football. Cycling is still not a mainstream sport for too much of the world; and is not localised enough to cash in on the interest that it has in some areas (for example, Flanders or Brittany). It is in a transition between the two. Maybe one day a viable system will work, but for the moment, I think we should be happy to watch what teams we know have a secure budget competing against each other. The last thing that the sport needs is more elite teams withdrawing due to a lack of guaranteed exposure if a star rider is injured or ill for a big race that would have collected big points.
 

 And cycling itself doesn’t work like football – you can’t practically and economically hold qualifiers for the Tour in the same way UEFA does for the Champion’s League; and different riders target different races, rendering the WorldTour ranking a low priority for many riders and fans. So, a concept with a lot of merit, but one which sadly probably shouldn’t be implemented until the sport has a considerable amount of further money and popularity. Which is truly disappointing, because anyone who disputes the drama of a title or relegation battle need look no further than Manchester City at QPR in 2012. But then again, maybe a stage race unfolds in the same way and cycling fans are treated to several “title races” each year? Promotion system or not, I’ll still be watching.
 

The link to the original Al Hinds article is below:
http://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/al-hinds/blog/129488/where-results-are-inconsequential-the-uci-worldtour

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